January-February-March 2016 Rainfall Verification

Precipitation Outlook January – February – March 2016

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January – February – March 2016 Observed Tercile-Based Rainfall Categories

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January – February – March 2016 Observed Percentage of Average Rainfall

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December 2015-January-February 2016 Rainfall Verification

Precipitation Outlook December 2015 – January – February 2016

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December 2015 – January – February 2016 Observed Tercile-Based Rainfall Categories

Dec-2015- Jan-Feb 2016-Observed-Tercile-Based-Rainfall-Categories

December 2015 – January – February 2016 Observed Percentage of Average Rainfall

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SPI Monitor March 2016

March 2016

Rainfall was mixed in the eastern Caribbean islands for the month. Trinidad was moderately dry; Tobago, Barbados, St. Vincent, Antigua and St. Kitts normal; Grenada slightly dry; St. Lucia, Anguilla and St. Maarten slightly wet; Dominica very wet; and St. Croix moderately wet. Conditions in Guyana ranged from normal in the north to severely dry in southern areas. Aruba and Curacao were normal, and Puerto Rico was predominantly so. Conditions in the Dominican Republic ranged from very wet in the west to moderately dry in the east; while in Jamaica they ranged from moderately dry in the west to normal in the east. Grand Cayman was normal. In Cuba, conditions ranged from slightly dry in central areas to exceptional wet in some part of the west. In Belize, the conditions ranged from moderately dry in the south to normal in the north.

January to March 2016

spi_3.03-2016For the three month period, normal to below normal rainfall was experienced in the eastern Caribbean and Guyana. Trinidad was severe to extremely dry; Tobago, St. Lucia, St. Kitts, Anguilla and St. Maarten normal; Grenada extremely dry; Barbados and St. Croix slightly dry; St. Vincent and Antigua moderately dry; Dominica moderately wet; and Guyana from normal in the north to extremely dry further south. Aruba and Curacao were severely dry. Though some southern parts of Puerto Rico were slightly wet, rainfall on the island was predominantly normal. Conditions in the Dominican Republic ranged from very wet in western areas to normal in the south, east and north. Jamaica and Grand Cayman were normal. Western Cuba ranged from slight to exceptionally wet, while the east was from normal to very wet. Conditions in Belize ranged from extremely dry in the south to normal in the north.

October 2015 to March 2016

spi_6.03-2016Apart from Grenada and St. Kitts that were slightly wet, rainfall in the eastern Caribbean and Guyana was normal to below normal for the six month period. Trinidad was slight to moderately dry; Tobago, Anguilla, St. Maarten and St. Croix normal; Barbados St. Vincent, St. Lucia, Dominica and Antigua moderately dry; and Guyana normal in the north to extremely dry in the south. Aruba was exceptionally dry, while Curacao was moderately dry. Puerto Rico was predominantly normal, but the Dominican Republic ranged from very wet in the west to severely dry in the east. Apart from northwestern areas that were slightly wet, Jamaica was predominantly normal, and Grand Cayman was normal. Conditions in Cuba ranged from extremely wet in some western and north-central areas, to moderately dry in the south east. Conditions in Belize ranged from moderately dry in the south to very wet in the northwest.

April 2015 to March 2016

spi_12.03-2016For the twelve month period, the islands of the eastern Caribbean were normal to below normal. Trinidad was severe to extremely dry; Tobago normal; Grenada and St. Kitts slightly dry; Barbados, Dominica and St. Croix extremely dry; St. Vincent and St. Lucia severely dry; Antigua and St. Maarten exceptionally dry; and Anguilla moderately dry. Conditions in Guyana range from moderately dry in the north to normal further south. Aruba was exceptionally dry and Curacao extremely dry. Conditions in Puerto Rico ranged from extremely dry in the west to moderately dry in the east, while they ranged from exceptionally dry in the south to slightly dry in the northwest in the Dominican Republic. Conditions in Jamaica ranged from slight to severely dry, while Grand Cayman was moderately dry. Conditions in Cuba ranged from moderately wet in some western and central areas to exceptionally dry in the southeast. The southern half of Belize ranged exceptionally dry to normal, while the northern half was normal.

 

Disclaimer

The information contained herein is provided with the understanding that The Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.

The maps produced used SPI values calculated from monthly rainfall totals from land stations and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Only land station data is used for the eastern Caribbean, described here as from Georgetown, Guyana in the south to Anguilla in the north. The Greater (and Western) Antilles is less represented by land stations. However efforts are being made to include more land stations from that part of the region. Note that the severity implied by the index is relative to what is normal for that period of consideration. Normal in the drier season reflects less rainfall than in the wetter season.