SPI Discussion June 2015

June 2015

Apart from Trinidad that was moderate to very wet, the islands of the eastern Caribbean were normal to below normal (and particularly below normal). Tobago, Grenada and Anguilla were slightly dry; Barbados, St. Vincent, St. Lucia, Antigua, St. Maarten and St. Croix were moderately dry; St. Kitts normal; and Dominica extremely dry. Conditions in Guyana ranged from extremely wet in the west to slightly wet in the east. Both Aruba was normal, but Puerto Rico slightly dry. The Dominican Republic ranged from extremely dry in the south to moderately wet in the north. Conditions in Jamaica ranged from slight to extremely dry. Grand Cayman was moderately wet, but Cuba was predominantly normal, though to the extreme east slight to severely dry conditions existed. In Belize conditions were moderately wet in central areas becoming progressively drier to the north and south to normal.

April to June 2015

For the three month period, normal to below normal (and particularly below normal) conditions were experienced in the eastern Caribbean islands. Trinidad was normal; Tobago, St. Kitts and Anguilla moderately dry; Grenada, St. Vincent and St. Lucia slightly dry; Barbados severely dry; Dominica exceptionally dry; and Antigua, St. Maarten and St. Croix extremely dry. Conditions in Guyana ranged from exceptionally wet in the west to moderately wet in the east. Aruba was severely dry and Puerto Rico moderate to severely dry. As one moves outward from the normal east central areas of the Dominican Republic, conditions became relatively drier to become exceptionally dry in the southwest. Western and eastern portions of Jamaica were dry, up to being extremely so, but Grand Cayman was normal to slightly dry. Cuba was dominated by normal rainfall, but some areas were not, particularly central areas that were slight to moderately dry, eastern areas that were slight to moderately wet and the extreme east that was slight to severely dry. Conditions in the majority of Belize were normal, however the extreme south was slightly wet, and the north slight to extremely wet.

January to June 2015

The islands of the eastern Caribbean were normal to below normal for the six month period. Trinidad, Grenada and St. Vincent were normal; Tobago and Barbados slightly dry; St. Lucia slight to moderately dry; Dominica, Antigua, St. Maarten and St. Croix exceptionally dry; S. Kitts moderately dry; and Anguilla severely dry. Conditions in Guyana ranged from extremely dry in the west to slightly wet in the east. Aruba was moderately dry, while Puerto Rico was normal to moderately dry. Conditions in the Dominican Republic ranged from extremely dry in the west to normal in central and eastern areas. Central areas of Jamaica were normal, while western and eastern areas were slight to moderately dry. Grand Cayman was normal, like most of Cuba apart from areas in the south and south east that were slightly dry. Belize was predominantly normal apart from southern areas that were slight to moderately wet.

July 2014 to June 2015

Apart from Trinidad that was slightly wet, normal to below normal conditions were experienced in the islands of the eastern Caribbean. Tobago, Grenada, Barbados, and Anguilla normal; St. Vincent, St. Maarten and St. Croix slightly dry; St. Lucia, Antigua and St. Kitts moderately dry; and Dominica exceptionally dry. Conditions in Guyana ranged from extremely wet in the northwest to normal in the east. Aruba was slightly dry, while Puerto Rico was normal. Conditions in the Dominican Republic ranged from severely dry in the southwest to normal in the northeast, but ranged from normal in west and central areas to severely dry in the east. Grand Cayman was slightly dry, while conditions in Cuba were normal in the west, slightly dry in the east and slight to moderately dry in central areas. Conditions in Belize were predominantly normal apart from the extreme west that was slight to moderately dry and the north that was slight to moderately wet.

Disclaimer

The information contained herein is provided with the understanding that The Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.

The maps produced used SPI values calculated from monthly rainfall totals from land stations and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Only land station data is used for the eastern Caribbean, described here as from Georgetown, Guyana in the south to Anguilla in the north. The Greater (and Western) Antilles is less represented by land stations. However efforts are being made to include more land stations from that part of the region. Note that the severity implied by the index is relative to what is normal for that period of consideration. Normal in the drier season reflects less rainfall than in the wetter season.