Discussion

January 2014

For the month, in the eastern Caribbean and Guyana, the north was generally normal to below normal, and the south (including Guyana) normal to above normal. Trinidad was abnormal to moderately wet, Tobago, St. Vincent, Antigua, Anguilla and St. Maarten normal; Grenada, Barbados and St. Lucia moderately wet; Dominica abnormally dry; St. Croix moderately dry; and Guyana ranging from moderately wet in the west to normal in the east. Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Jamaica were normal. Grand Cayman was very wet, while conditions in Cuba ranged from normal in the east to very wet. Rainfall totals in Belize ranged from moderately wet in the west to abnormally wet in the south and normal in the north.Normal to above normal conditions were experienced in the eastern Caribbean and Guyana. Trinidad; Dominica and Antigua were abnormally wet; Tobago and Barbados normal; Grenada and Anguilla exceptionally wet; St. Vincent moderate to very wet; St. Lucia extremely wet; St. Maarten moderately wet; St. Croix very wet; and Guyana moderately wet in the west to normal in the east. Puerto Rico was moderately wet, while the Dominican Republic Jamaica and Grand Cayman were normal. Conditions in Belize ranged from abnormally wet in the south to extremely wet in the north.

November 2013 to January 2014

 Apart from Dominica that was abnormally dry, the eastern Caribbean and Guyana were normal to above normal for the three month period. Trinidad was moderate to very wet; Tobago, Barbados, St. Vincent, Antigua, St. Kitts and St. Maarten normal; Grenada, St. Lucia and St. Croix moderately wet; Anguilla abnormally wet; and Guyana very wet in the west to abnormally wet in the east. Puerto Rico was moderately wet, while the Dominican Republic ranged from abnormally dry in the west to normal in the east. Jamaica was normal, but Grand Cayman moderately wet. Rainfall in Cuba ranged from exceptionally wet in the west to moderately dry in the east; while Belize ranged from extremely wet in the west to moderately wet in the south and north. The eastern Caribbean and Guyana were predominantly normal to above normal for the three month period. Trinidad was very to extremely wet; Tobago, Grenada, St. Lucia and Anguilla abnormally wet; Barbados, Dominica, Antigua, St. Kitts, St. Maarten and St. Croix normal; St Vincent moderately wet; and Guyana moderately wet in the west and abnormally wet in the east. Puerto Rico was predominantly abnormally wet while the Dominican Republic was predominantly normal. Jamaica was moderately dry in the west and abnormally dry in the east, while Grand Cayman was normal. Conditions in Belize ranged from exceptionally wet in the west to very wet in the north, south and east.Apart from Dominica that was abnormally dry, the eastern Caribbean and Guyana were normal to above normal for the three month period. Trinidad was moderate to very wet; Tobago, Barbados, St. Vincent, Antigua, St. Kitts and St. Maarten normal; Grenada, St. Lucia and St. Croix moderately wet; Anguilla abnormally wet; and Guyana very wet in the west to abnormally wet in the east. Puerto Rico was moderately wet, while the Dominican Republic ranged from abnormally dry in the west to normal in the east. Jamaica was normal, but Grand Cayman moderately wet. Rainfall in Cuba ranged from exceptionally wet in the west to moderately dry in the east; while Belize ranged from extremely wet in the west to moderately wet in the south and north.

August 2013 to January 2014

Rainfall for the eastern Caribbean and Guyana were mixed for the six month period. Trinidad was moderate to very wet; Tobago, St. Maarten, Anguilla and St. Croix normal; Grenada, Dominica, Antigua and St. Kitts abnormally dry; Barbados and St. Lucia abnormally wet; St. Vincent normal to abnormally wet; and Guyana normal in the north and abnormally wet in the south. Puerto Rico was moderately wet while the Dominican Republic and Jamaica were normal. Grand Cayman was abnormally wet. Western (above normal) and eastern (below normal) Cuba contrasted, as, the extreme west was as wet as exceptional and the east as dry as extreme, but central Cuba was predominantly normal. Conditions in Belize ranged from exceptionally wet in the west to moderately wet in the south and very wet in the north.

February 2013 to January 2014

For the twelve month period, apart from Grenada that was abnormally dry, the eastern Caribbean and Guyana were predominantly normal to above normal. Trinidad was very to extremely wet; Tobago, St. Vincent, Antigua, St. Kitts, St. Maarten, Anguilla and St. Croix normal; Barbados and Dominica moderately wet; and Guyana normal to moderately wet from north to south. Puerto Rico was exceptionally wet, while the Dominican Republic ranged from moderately dry in the south west to very wet in the east. Apart from the western portion that was abnormally dry, Jamaica was normal. Grand Cayman was also normal. There was contrast in Cuba between the west and the east, the west being as wet as exceptional and the east as dry as exceptional, but central Cuba was predominantly normal. Conditions in Belize ranged from abnormally wet in the south to extremely wet in the north.

Disclaimer

The information contained herein is provided with the understanding that The Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.

The maps produced used SPI values calculated from monthly rainfall totals from land stations and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Only land station data is used for the eastern Caribbean, described here as from Georgetown, Guyana in the south to Anguilla in the north. The Greater (and Western) Antilles is less represented by land stations. However efforts are being made to include more land stations from that part of the region. Note that the severity implied by the index is relative to what is normal for that period of consideration. Normal in the drier season reflects less rainfall than in the wetter season.