SPI Monitor May 2014

Discussion

May 2014

In the islands of the eastern Caribbean, conditions contrasted between the normal to above normal north and the normal to below normal south. Trinidad and Dominica were abnormally dry; Tobago, Antigua and St. Kitts normal; Grenada, Barbados, St. Vincent and St. Lucia moderately dry; Anguilla and St. Maarten moderately wet; and St. Croix abnormally wet. Rainfall totals in Guyana ranged from moderately wet in the northwest to severely dry in the east. Puerto Rico was moderately wet while Jamaica was predominantly normal apart from western areas that were abnormal to moderately wet. Aruba was abnormally dry while Grand Cayman was normal. Cuba was predominantly normal, apart from west central areas that were abnormally wet and the extreme east that was abnormal to moderately wet. Conditions in Belize ranged from normal in the south to moderately wet in the north.

March 2014 to May 2014

For the three month period, the islands of the eastern Caribbean were predominantly normal to below normal apart from in the vicinity of St. Croix that was moderately wet. Trinidad, Tobago, Barbados, St. Lucia and Dominica were moderately dry; Grenada and Antigua abnormally dry, St. Vincent severely dry; and St. Kitts, Anguilla and St. Maarten normal. There was a stark contrast in rainfall across Guyana with the north being moderately wet, with declining rainfall toward the east resulting in exceptionally dry conditions. Aruba was severely dry. Puerto Rico was normal, and Jamaica predominantly so apart from western areas that were abnormal to moderately wet. Both Grand Cayman and Cuba (apart from the extreme east that was abnormal to moderately wet) were normal. Conditions in Belize ranged from abnormally dry in the south to moderately wet in the north.

December 2013 to May 2014

Mixed conditions were experienced over the islands of the eastern Caribbean for the six month period. Trinidad, St. Vincent, St. Lucia, Antigua and St. Kitts were normal; Tobago and Barbados normal to abnormally dry; Grenada and Anguilla very wet; Dominica abnormally dry; St. Maarten abnormally wet; and St. Croix moderately wet. Rainfall totals for the period for Guyana ranged from moderately wet in the west to normal in the east. Aruba was abnormally dry. Puerto Rico was normal to abnormally wet, while Jamaica was predominantly normal apart from western areas that were abnormal to moderately wet. In Cuba western and eastern areas were abnormal to moderately wet, while central areas were normal. Grand Cayman was normal but conditions in Belize ranged from normal in the south to moderately wet in the north.

June 2013 to May 2014

Mixed conditions were experienced over the twelve month period in the eastern Caribbean islands. Trinidad was abnormal to moderately wet; Tobago, Barbados, St. Vincent, St. Lucia, Anguilla and St. Maarten normal; Grenada and Antigua moderately dry; St. Kitts abnormally dry; and St. Croix moderately wet. Rainfall in Guyana ranged from very wet in the west to abnormally wet in the east. Aruba was moderately dry. Puerto Rico was exceptionally wet, but Jamaica was normal and Grand Cayman abnormally wet. Western portions of Cuba were abnormal to exceptionally wet, eastern areas abnormal to moderately dry, and central areas normal. Conditions in Belize ranged from exceptionally wet in the west to moderately wet in the south and very wet in the north.

Disclaimer

The information contained herein is provided with the understanding that The Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.

The maps produced used SPI values calculated from monthly rainfall totals from land stations and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Only land station data is used for the eastern Caribbean, described here as from Georgetown, Guyana in the south to Anguilla in the north. The Greater (and Western) Antilles is less represented by land stations. However efforts are being made to include more land stations from that part of the region. Note that the severity implied by the index is relative to what is normal for that period of consideration. Normal in the drier season reflects less rainfall than in the wetter season.