SPI Discussion October 2015

October 2015

Apart from Tobago that was moderately wet, rainfall in islands of the eastern Caribbean was normal to below normal. Trinidad and St. Lucia were moderate to slightly dry; Grenada, St. Vincent, Antigua, St. Kitts, Anguilla and St. Croix normal; Barbados and St. Maarten moderately dry; Dominica exceptionally dry. Guyana was moderately wet in the northern extreme and below normal in the east with the remainder being normal. Aruba was severely dry while conditions in Puerto Rico ranged from slightly wet in the southwest to moderately dry in the east. Conditions in the Dominican Republic ranged from normal in the south to moderately dry in the north, but Jamaica ranged from moderately wet in the west to normal in the east. Grand Cayman was normal. Conditions in Cuba ranged from moderately dry in the west to moderately wet in the east, while Belize was normal.

August to October 2015

For the three-month period, the islands of the eastern Caribbean were normal to below normal. Trinidad was severe to moderately dry; Tobago normal; Grenada, St. Vincent and St. Croix moderately dry; Barbados, St. Lucia and Dominica severely dry; Antigua, St. Kitts and Anguilla slightly dry; and St. Maarten exceptionally dry. Conditions in Guyana ranged from moderately wet in the north to moderately dry in the east. Aruba was exceptionally dry, while Puerto Rico ranged from severely dry in the south to slightly dry in the north. Normal to extremely dry conditions were experienced in the Dominican Republic, but Jamaica was predominantly normal with the eastern being normal to moderately dry. Grand Cayman was exceptionally dry. Conditions in Cuba ranged from moderately dry in the west to normal in the east, while for Belize it was exceptionally dry in the west to moderately dry in the east.

May to October 2015

Apart from Tobago where the rainfall over the six-month period was normal, the islands of the eastern Caribbean experienced below normal rainfall. Trinidad was extreme to severely dry; Grenada and Anguilla moderately dry; Barbados, Dominica, St. Croix and St. Maarten exceptionally dry; St. Vincent, St. Lucia and Antigua extremely dry; and St. Kitts severely dry. Conditions in Guyana ranged from exceptionally wet in the north and west to very wet in the east. Aruba was extremely dry and Puerto Rico extremely dry in the south to moderately dry in the north. The Dominican Republic was predominantly extremely dry but ranged to moderately dry, but Jamaica was severely dry in the south and moderately dry in the north. Grand Cayman was extremely dry. In Cuba conditions in the east were normal, while in the west they were extreme to slightly dry. In Belize conditions ranged from exceptionally dry in the west to moderately dry in the east.

November 2014 to October 2015

Apart from Tobago where rainfall for the twelve-month period was normal, the islands of the eastern Caribbean experienced below normal rainfall. Trinidad was extreme to moderately dry; Grenada, St. Vincent, Barbados, and St. Croix moderately dry; St. Lucia and Antigua severely dry; Anguilla slightly dry; and St. Maarten extremely dry. Conditions in Guyana ranged from exceptionally wet in the north to slightly wet in the east. Aruba was severely dry, while Puerto Rico was moderate to slightly dry. Conditions in the Dominican Republic ranged from exceptionally dry in the northwest to normal in the east, while in Jamaica they were from normal in the west to severely dry in the east. Grand Cayman was extremely dry. Eastern Cuba was normal, while the west was severe to slightly dry. Belize ranged from extremely dry in the west to normal in the east.

Disclaimer

The information contained herein is provided with the understanding that The Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.

The maps produced used SPI values calculated from monthly rainfall totals from land stations and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Only land station data is used for the eastern Caribbean, described here as from Georgetown, Guyana in the south to Anguilla in the north. The Greater (and Western) Antilles is less represented by land stations. However efforts are being made to include more land stations from that part of the region. Note that the severity implied by the index is relative to what is normal for that period of consideration. Normal in the drier season reflects less rainfall than in the wetter season.