SPI Discussion August 2015

August 2015

Mixed conditions were experienced in the eastern Caribbean and Guyana for August. Trinidad, St. Kitts, Anguilla and St. Croix were normal; Tobago slightly dry; Grenada and Barbados severely dry; St. Vincent, Antigua and St. Maarten moderately dry; St. Lucia extremely dry; Dominica moderately wet; and Guyana ranging from extremely wet in the north to moderately dry in the east. Aruba was extremely dry, but Puerto Rico normal. The Dominican Republic was predominantly normal except for the extreme north that was slightly dry and the extreme west and east that were slightly wet. Conditions in Jamaica ranged from very wet in central areas to exceptionally dry in the east and extremely dry in the west. Western Cuba was normal to severely dry and eastern Cuba normal to very wet. Grand Cayman was exceptionally dry, but Belize was extremely dry in the south and exceptionally dry in the north.

June to August 2015

For the three month period, predominantly below normal conditions existed in the islands of the eastern Caribbean. Trinidad was normal to slightly dry; Tobago slightly dry; Grenada, St. Lucia and St. Croix severely dry; Barbados, Antigua and St. Maarten exceptionally dry; Dominica, St. Kitts and Anguilla moderately dry. Conditions in Guyana ranged from exceptionally wet in the north and west to very wet in the east. Aruba was slightly dry, but Puerto Rico normal to moderately dry. Conditions in the Dominican Republic ranged from slightly wet in the northwest to extremely dry in the south east; while those in Jamaica ranged from slightly wet in central areas to extremely dry to the east and west. Grand Cayman was normal, while Cuba was slightly dry to the west and extreme south and normal elsewhere. Belize was moderately dry.

March to August 2015

The islands of the eastern Caribbean experienced normal to below normal rainfall for the six month period. Trinidad, St. Vincent and St. Lucia moderately dry; Tobago normal; Grenada and St. Kitts severely dry; Barbados and Anguilla extremely dry; Dominica moderate to severely dry; and Antigua, St. Maarten, and St. Croix exceptionally dry. Conditions in Guyana ranged from exceptionally wet in the north and west to very wet in the east. Aruba was slightly dry, while Puerto Rico was normal to severely dry from west to east. The Dominican Republic was severe to extremely dry, while central areas of Jamaica was normal drying to severely dry to the east and west. Grand Cayman was moderately dry and Cuba normal to slightly dry. Conditions in Belize ranged from severely dry in the northwest to slightly dry in the southeast.

September 2014 to August 2015

Rainfall in the islands of the eastern Caribbean was normal to below normal for the twelve month period. Trinidad was slight to moderately dry; Tobago, Grenada and Anguilla normal; Barbados, St. Vincent, Antigua, St. Kitts, St. Maarten and St. Croix moderately dry; St. Lucia severely dry; and Dominica extremely dry. Aruba was slightly dry, but Puerto Rico normal. Conditions in the Dominican Republic ranged from severely dry in the extreme south to slightly dry in the north, while Jamaica was predominantly normal but with eastern areas slight to extremely dry. Grand Cayman was severely dry, but Cuba was normal to moderately dry in the west and normal to slightly dry in the east. Apart from western extremes that were slight to moderately dry, Belize was normal.

Disclaimer

The information contained herein is provided with the understanding that The Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.

The maps produced used SPI values calculated from monthly rainfall totals from land stations and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Only land station data is used for the eastern Caribbean, described here as from Georgetown, Guyana in the south to Anguilla in the north. The Greater (and Western) Antilles is less represented by land stations. However efforts are being made to include more land stations from that part of the region. Note that the severity implied by the index is relative to what is normal for that period of consideration. Normal in the drier season reflects less rainfall than in the wetter season.