• Less frequent episodes of Saharan dust incursions into the Caribbean in the coming season may reduce risk of exacerbations of allergic rhinitis and asthma in susceptible persons.
• In Belize, the Guianas and many other areas across the region, the drying of the ground surface and foliage is expected to increase the concentration of local dust, thereby increasing the risk of respiratory illness. This risk may be further exacerbated during wildfires.
• Increased humidity in the coastal Guianas during the secondary wet season may promote mould growth in damp and poorly ventilated buildings, leading to increased allergic reactions. These effects may be more limited than in recent years due to the drying effects of El Niño.
• Where episodes of flooding occur, cases of ear, nose, and throat infections may increase, where persons come into contact with flood waters. This is particularly the case in the coastal Guianas through January.

• Cases of gastroenteritis may increase where the quality and quantity of water are compromised during episodes of flooding — especially in the coastal Guianas throughout the period – or in particularly dry periods, particularly in Belize, Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados, the Windward Islands and the ABC Islands.

• There is a possibility of skin infections due to contact with contaminated, stagnant and/or floodwaters, particularly in the coastal Guianas.
• Excessive UV exposure can cause skin damage across the population on sunny days if unprotected (for more information, see: https://www.epa.gov/sunsafety/uv-index-scale-0). For simple action steps on sun protection, see: https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/radiation-the-ultraviolet-(uv)-index
• Morbidity from excessive heat due to high temperatures across the region should not be an issue in December-February.

• Higher temperatures, such as the record-breaking temperatures during the 2023 Caribbean Heat Season lead to increased rates of Aedes aegypti mosquito breeding, biting and disease transmission. Increased dengue case confirmations were recorded in several of the Eastern Caribbean states.
• The presence of stagnant water in the aftermath of a flood may promote the breeding of mosquitoes. The highest likelihood would therefore be in the coastal Guianas. However, note that in the case of flash floods, flood waters may sweep away mosquito eggs, larvae and pupae, potentially reducing mosquito populations in the short term.
• In northwest Belize, southern French Guiana, Grenada, western Puerto Rico and Suriname, where shortages in water supply may be experienced by February due to drought, increased use of containers for water storage may potentially create more breeding sites for mosquitoes. Mosquito borne diseases, such as Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika are of great concern in these areas. Proper management of water storage containers e.g., covering with protective mesh, helps to reduce this risk.
• Access useful materials on mosquito control measures here: https://www.paho.org/en/topics/vectors-integrated-management-and-public-health-entomology); Join the fight against mosquito borne disease in the Caribbean: https://carpha.org/What-We-Do/Public-Health/Dengue and http://missionmosquito.carpha.org/
• Where episodes of flooding may occur – particularly in the coastal Guianas – there is increased risk of Leptospirosis due to displacement of vectors such as rodents into houses and premises, increasing the risk of contamination of household surfaces and food stores.

• Mental health effects may increase due to extreme weather events, their impacts and associated alerts. Health Care Professionals are therefore advised to be aware of these issues, as they interact with patients.
• Food insecurity would be a concern due to the potential for extensive crop damage and/or loss due to frequent dry spells in The Bahamas, Belize and the Greater Antilles, and in areas where drought develops or intensifies. A similar concern arises as a result of the high flood potential in the coastal Guianas.
• Severe weather events, which can trigger a range of hazards, including high winds, landslides, flash floods, among others, may possibly affect Caribbean territories, particularly in the coastal Guianas. Although the 2023 Hurricane Season has come to an end, health practitioners and administrators should still maintain a state of readiness.

This Bulletin provides a broad overview of climate conditions up to 3 months in advance. It is based on insights drawn from CIMH’s suite of technical climate information products and epidemiological insights from CARPHA and PAHO. The information contained herein is provided with the understanding that the CARPHA, the PAHO and the CIMH make no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of said information. The Bulletin may be freely used and disseminated by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.