SPI Discussion January 2015

January 2015

Contrasting conditions were experienced between the northern and southern islands of the eastern Caribbean. Trinidad and St. Vincent were mildly wet; Tobago moderately wet; Grenada very wet; Barbados, St. Lucia, Dominica, St. Kitts normal; Antigua slightly dry; Anguilla extremely dry; St. Maarten and St. Croix moderately dry. Conditions in Guyana ranged from moderately wet in the northwest to moderately dry in the east. Aruba was moderately dry, but Puerto Rico was moderate to very wet. Jamaica was moderately wet, while Grand Cayman was normal. The western half of Cuba was normal to moderately wet, while the eastern half was normal to moderately dry. Belize was predominantly normal apart from its western extremities that were mildly wet.

November 2014 to January 2015

Apart from in the vicinity of Dominica that was moderately dry, rainfall in the eastern Caribbean and Guyana was normal to above normal for the three month period. Trinidad was mild to moderately wet; Tobago extremely wet; Grenada, Barbados, St. Vincent, St. Lucia, Antigua and St. Kitts normal; Anguilla and St. Croix moderately wet; St. Maarten mildly wet; and Guyana ranging from very wet in the north to normal further south. Aruba was mildly dry, but Puerto Rico moderately wet. Eastern portions of Jamaica were mild to moderately dry, but the majority of the island was normal. Grand Cayman was mildly dry. Apart from some western and central areas that were mild to moderately wet and mildly dry respectively, Cuba was predominantly normal. Conditions in Belize ranged from mildly dry in the south to moderately wet in the north.

August 2014 to January 2015

For the six month period, mixed conditions were experienced in the eastern Caribbean and Guyana. Trinidad, St. Croix and Anguilla were mildly wet; Tobago and Grenada moderately wet; Barbados, Antigua, St. Kitts and St. Maarten normal; Dominica extremely dry; and Guyana ranging from moderately wet in the northwest to normal in the east. Aruba was normal while Puerto Rico was moderate to very wet. Conditions in Jamaica ranged from normal in the west to severely dry in the east, while Grand Cayman was moderately dry. Apart from some central and eastern portions of the island that were mild to moderately dry, Cuba was normal. Conditions in Belize ranged from normal in the south to moderately wet in the north.

February 2014 to January 2015

Mixed conditions were experienced in the eastern Caribbean and Guyana for the period. Trinidad, Tobago, Grenada, Barbados, Anguilla, St. Maarten and St. Croix were normal; St. Vincent and St. Lucia severely dry; Dominica exceptionally dry; Antigua moderately dry; St. Kitts mildly dry; and Guyana ranging from extremely wet in the north to moderately dry in the east. Aruba was mildly dry, but Puerto Rico was mild to moderately wet. Jamaica ranged from moderately wet in the west to moderately dry in the east, but Grand Cayman was moderately dry. Apart from mild to moderately dry central areas, Cuba was predominantly normal. Conditions in Belize ranged from moderately dry in the west to mildly wet in the northeast.

Disclaimer

The information contained herein is provided with the understanding that The Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.

The maps produced used SPI values calculated from monthly rainfall totals from land stations and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Only land station data is used for the eastern Caribbean, described here as from Georgetown, Guyana in the south to Anguilla in the north. The Greater (and Western) Antilles is less represented by land stations. However efforts are being made to include more land stations from that part of the region. Note that the severity implied by the index is relative to what is normal for that period of consideration. Normal in the drier season reflects less rainfall than in the wetter season.