SPI Discussion September 2015

September 2015

Normal to below normal rainfall was experienced over the eastern Caribbean and Guyana for the month. Trinidad and St. Maarten were exceptionally dry; Tobago, Barbados, St. Vincent and St. Lucia normal; Grenada and St. Kitts moderately dry; Dominica and St. Croix severely dry; Antigua slightly dry; Anguilla extremely dry; and Guyana ranging from moderately dry in the west to normal in the north and east. Aruba was severely dry, while Puerto Rico was predominantly normal. Most of the Dominican Republic was dominated by extreme to exceptionally dry conditions, apart from the east where areas received normal rainfall. Central Jamaica was normal while the western areas were slight to moderately dry and the eastern slight to extremely dry. Grand Cayman was extremely dry, but conditions in Cuba ranged from extremely dry in the west to normal in the east. Rainfall in Belize ranged from moderately dry in the west to normal in the east, south and north.

July to September 2015

Normal to below normal conditions dominated the islands of the eastern Caribbean for the three month period. Trinidad was extreme to moderately dry from west to east; Tobago normal; Grenada and St. Croix severely dry; Barbados and St. Maarten exceptionally dry; St. Vincent, St. Lucia and St. Kitts moderately dry; Dominica moderate to severely dry; and Antigua and Anguilla extremely dry. Conditions in Guyana ranged from exceptionally wet in the north to moderately wet in the south and east. Aruba was moderately dry, but Puerto Rico ranged from normal in the northwest to moderately dry in the east. Conditions in the Dominica Republic ranged from exceptionally dry in central areas to normal in the east and northwest and moderately dry in the southwest. Central areas of Jamaica were normal, and ranged to exceptionally dry in the east and south and extremely dry in the west. Grand Cayman was exceptionally dry, but the eastern portion of Cuba was normal while the western was exceptionally to slightly dry from west to east. Conditions in Belize ranged from moderately dry in the south to exceptionally dry in the north.

April to September 2015

For the six month period, normal to below normal conditions were predominant in the islands of the eastern Caribbean. Trinidad was extreme to severely dry; Tobago normal; Grenada severe to extremely dry; Barbados, Antigua, Anguilla, St. Maarten and St. Croix exceptionally dry; St. Lucia, St. Vincent and St. Kitts severely dry; and Dominica extremely dry. Conditions in Guyana ranged from exceptionally wet in the north to very wet in the east. Aruba was severely dry, while Puerto Rico was moderately dry in the west and severely dry in the east. Conditions in the Dominican Republic ranged from exceptionally dry in the west to slightly dry in the east; while those in Jamaica ranged from normal in central areas to extremely dry to the east and west. Grand Cayman was extremely dry, while normal to moderately dry conditions were experienced in Cuba. Conditions in Belize ranged from slightly dry in the south to exceptionally dry in the northwest.

October 2014 to September 2015

For the twelve month period, normal to below normal conditions dominated the islands of the eastern Caribbean. Trinidad was predominantly moderately dry; Tobago and Anguilla normal; Grenada and Barbados slightly dry; St. Vincent, St. Kitts and St. Maarten moderately dry; St. Lucia and St. Croix severely dry; and Dominica extremely dry. Conditions in Guyana ranged from exceptionally wet in the north to slightly wet in the east. Aruba was slightly dry, but Puerto Rico normal to slightly dry. The Dominican Republic ranged from severely dry in the southwest to normal in the east. Central parts of Jamaica were normal, but the extreme west was slightly dry, and the east slight to extremely dry. Grand Cayman was extremely dry, while normal to moderately dry conditions were experienced in Cuba. Conditions in Belize ranged from severely dry in the west to normal in the south, east and north.

 

Disclaimer

The information contained herein is provided with the understanding that The Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.

The maps produced used SPI values calculated from monthly rainfall totals from land stations and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Only land station data is used for the eastern Caribbean, described here as from Georgetown, Guyana in the south to Anguilla in the north. The Greater (and Western) Antilles is less represented by land stations. However efforts are being made to include more land stations from that part of the region. Note that the severity implied by the index is relative to what is normal for that period of consideration. Normal in the drier season reflects less rainfall than in the wetter season.