SPI Monitor February 2016

February 2016

Normal to below normal rainfall was experienced across the eastern Caribbean and Guyana in February. Trinidad was slight to moderately dry, Tobago slightly dry, Grenada, St. Vincent, St. Lucia and Antigua extremely dry; Barbados moderately dry; Dominica, St. Kitts, Anguilla, St. Maarten and St. Croix normal; and Guyana normal in the west to moderately dry in the east. Aruba was severely dry, while Puerto Rico was normal in the west to moderately wet in the east. Conditions in the Dominican Republic conditions ranged from moderately wet in the west to normal in the east. Conditions in Jamaica ranged from exceptionally wet in the west to normal in the east, while Grand Cayman was moderately dry. Conditions in Cuba ranged from normal to very wet, while those in Belize range from slightly dry in the south to moderately wet in the north.

December 2015 to February 2016

For the three month period, the eastern Caribbean and Guyana were normal to below normal. Trinidad, Tobago and Grenada were normal; Barbados, St. Vincent, Dominica, St. Kitts, St. Maarten and St Croix moderately dry; St. Lucia and Antigua exceptionally dry; Anguilla slightly dry; and Guyana normal to the west to moderately dry in the east. Aruba was severely dry while Puerto Rico was normal. The Dominican Republic was slightly wet in the west and normal in the east, while Jamaica was predominantly normal apart from in the extreme west that was slight to moderately wet. Grand Cayman was slightly wet. Conditions in Cuba ranged from extremely wet in western and central area to slightly wet in the east, while in Belize they ranged from severely dry in the south to normal in the north.

September 2015 to February 2016

Normal to below normal rainfall were experienced in the eastern Caribbean and Guyana over the six month period. Trinidad and Antigua were moderate to severely dry; Tobago and Grenada normal; Barbados, St. Vincent, St. Kitts and St. Croix moderately dry; St. Lucia severe to extremely dry; Dominica extremely dry; St. Maarten exceptionally dry; Anguilla slightly dry; and Guyana slightly wet in the north to severely dry in the east. Aruba was exceptionally dry, while Puerto Rico was moderately dry in the west and slightly dry in the east. Conditions in the Dominican Republic ranged from slightly dry in the west to severely dry in the east, while in Jamaica they ranged from slightly wet in western and central areas to moderately dry in the southeast. Grand Cayman was normal. Conditions in Cuba ranged from moderately wet in central areas to normal in the east and slightly wet in the west, while Belize was from moderately wet in the west to normal in the south and slightly wet in the east and north.

March 2015 to February 2016

For the twelve month period, rainfall over the islands of the eastern Caribbean was normal to below normal. Trinidad was severe to extremely dry; Tobago normal; Grenada slightly dry; Barbados and St. Lucia extremely dry; St. Vincent and St. Kitts severely dry; Dominica, Antigua, St. Maarten and St. Croix exceptionally dry; and Anguilla moderately dry. Conditions in Guyana ranged from exceptionally wet in the north to normal further south. Aruba was extremely dry, while Puerto Rico was severely dry in the west and moderately dry in the east. Conditions were predominantly severely dry but with areas in the southwest and east that were extremely or exceptionally dry. At the same time, Jamaica was predominantly normal, but with slight to moderately dry areas in the east, while Grand Cayman was slightly dry. Similarly to Jamaica, Cuba and Belize were predominantly normal, but with north-central areas of Cuba being slightly wet, and with southern parts of Belize slightly dry.

 

Disclaimer

The information contained herein is provided with the understanding that The Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.

The maps produced used SPI values calculated from monthly rainfall totals from land stations and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Only land station data is used for the eastern Caribbean, described here as from Georgetown, Guyana in the south to Anguilla in the north. The Greater (and Western) Antilles is less represented by land stations. However efforts are being made to include more land stations from that part of the region. Note that the severity implied by the index is relative to what is normal for that period of consideration. Normal in the drier season reflects less rainfall than in the wetter season.