November 2022

CariCOF Drought Outlook By the end of January 2023

Drought outlook – shorter-/longer-term concern?

  • Current drought situation (up to the end of September 2022): (more information here)
    – Severe (or worse) short term drought has developed in Cuba and Saint Vincent.
    – Severe (or worse) long term drought has developed in Antigua, Western Cuba, southwest Haiti, eastern Jamaica, Martinique, Sint Maarten, and St. Vincent.
  • Short–term drought situation (by the end of January 2023):
    – There is no concern for short term drought for the region at the end of January 2023.
  • Long–term drought situation (by the end of November 2022):
    – Long term drought might possibly develop or continue in western Belize, Sint Maarten / St–Martin, St. Vincent, and the USVI.
    – Areas ending up in long term drought by the end of November may experience lower than usual water levels in large reservoirs, large rivers and groundwater, which would become a concern for the 2022–’23 dry season.

* We advise all stakeholders to keep monitoring drought and look for our monthly updates.*

What is the predicted short term drought concern by the end of January 2023?

Current update (October 2022)

  • We are currently in the wet season.
  • No short term drought concern for the region by January.
Short term drought alert levels at the end of January 2023

(updated October 2022 – based on a 6–month SPI for August to January 2022–’23)

Short term drought alert levels at the end of December 2022

(updated September 2022 – based on a 6–month SPI for July to December 2022)

For climate information specific to your country, please consult with your national meteorological service. CariCOF outlooks speak to recent and expected climate trends across the Caribbean in general.

What is the predicted long term drought concern at the end of November 2022?

  • This 12–month SPI–based drought outlook uses observations through September 2022, with potential impacts on large surface water reservoirs and groundwater. In general, impacts are expected if the 12–month SPI is ≤–1.3 (severely dry or worse – ref.: CDPMN).
  • A drought watch should be considered for western Belize, Sint Maarten / St–Martin, St. Vincent, and the USVI.
Long term drought alert levels at the end of November 2022

(updated October 2022 – based on a 12–month SPI for Dec 2021 to Nov 2022)

Long term drought alert levels by the end of November 2022

(updated September 2022 – based on a 12-month SPI for Dec 2020 to Nov 2022)

For climate information specific to your country, please consult with your national meteorological service. CariCOF outlooks speak to recent and expected climate trends across the Caribbean in general.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR & CONSERVE WATER !!

ALERT LEVEL

MEANING

ACTION LEVEL

NO CONCERN

No drought concern

  • monitor resources
  • update and ratify management plans
  • public awareness campaigns
  • upgrade infrastructure

DROUGHT WATCH

Drought possible

  • keep updated
  • protect resources and conserve water
  • implement management plans
  • response training
  • monitor and repair infrastructure

DROUGHT WARNING

Drought evolving

  • protect resources
  • conserve and recycle water
  • implement management plans
  • release public service announcements
  • last minute infrastructural repairs and upgrades
  • report impacts

DROUGHT EMERGENCY

Drought of immediate concern

  • release public service announcements
  • implement management and response plans
  • enforce water restrictions and recycling
  • enforce resource protection
  • repair infrastructure
  • report impacts

CariCOF Climate Outlook Forum

caricof@cimh.edu.bb
rcc.cimh.edu.bb
Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology
TEL: (246) 425–1362/3 | FAX: (246) 424–4733

CariCOF Drought Outlook

Coordination:

Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology

Dr. Cedric J. Van Meerbeeck – Climatologist

Dr. Teddy Allen – Assistant Climatologist

Participating territories:

Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curacao, Dominica, Dominican Republic, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, St. Barth’s, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Maarten/ St-Martin, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago and the US Virgin Islands

DISCLAIMER:

The information contained herein is provided with the understanding that CariCOF makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.