Published: October 31, 2022
Look Back at Last Season: July to September 2022
With La Niña unfolding in the Pacific, only few areas received less than the usual amount of rainfall. Most areas recorded at least seasonably high — or even higher — rainfall totals for this portion of the wet season. Fewer heatwaves occurred than in recent hot years (such as 2020), but high humidity led to a peak in heat stress in September.
Climate Outlook for November – December – January 2022 – 2023
This transition between wet and dry season is forecast to feature frequent wet days, excessive rainfall in the ABC Islands, Belize and the Lesser Antilles until December and the coastal Guianas through January. This results in frequent disruptions of outdoor activities and rising water levels in soils, rivers and reservoirs.
The potential for floods and cascading hazards is high to extremely high in the ABC Islands, Cayman Islands, coastal Guyana, Dominican Republic, Lesser Antilles, western Jamaica and Suriname, and moderate to high in most other areas. Strong tropical cyclone activity may still develop until the end of the year, particularly over the Caribbean Sea. Temperatures return to being comfortable.
Rainfall Outlook for NDJ 2022-2023
Above normal rainfall expected for the ABC Islands, Windward and Leeward Islands, and the Guianas, and to a lesser extent, in Hispanola and Puerto Rico. Dryer than normal conditions expected for Cuba and Belize, as well as the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, and the Cayman Islands. Jamaica is expected to have equal chances of near-normal, above normal, and below normal rainfall… More information
Night- and day-time temperatures up to January
NDJ night-time (min.) and daytime (max.) temperatures are forecast to be close to the
usual or slightly lower in many areas, except for Guyana and, at night, in Antilles south of Guadeloupe.
Heat stress should rapidly decrease in the Guianas and, in the remainder of the region, no longer be a regular concern as the region transitions to the cool season… More Information
Look forward to the next season: February – March – April 2023
Indications are that the peak of the 2022-23 dry season may be characteristic of a La Niña event. Wetter than usual conditions are likely in the Guianas, the ABC Is. and the Lesser Antilles. However, it may possibly be even drier than usual in the Bahamas and the Greater Antilles westwards of Haiti.
Frequent dry spells may impact crop production, particularly in the northwest of the region. Temperatures usually remain comfortable through March as the Caribbean cool season draws to an end, but tend to increase in April. It should be noted that Saharan dust incursions into the region may increase during this period… More Information
What influences the next season
Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) – November 22-26, 2022
The Dry Season CariCOF will be held in Bridgetown, Barbados at the Accra Hotel on November 22-26, 2022. The four day event will bring meteorologists, stakeholders from the agriculture, tourism, and health sectors together to hear the climate outlook for the coming season and the implications for their sectors. The meeting will be held in a hybrid format. Please contact us for an invitation.
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DISCLAIMER: The information contained herein is provided with the understanding that CariCOF makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.
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