SPI Discussion March 2015
Mixed conditions existed in the eastern Caribbean and Guyana for the month. Trinidad, Tobago and St. Lucia were normal; Grenada and St. Vincent slightly wet; Barbados moderate to very wet; Dominica, Anguilla and St. Croix moderately dry; Antigua severely dry; St. Kitts slightly dry; St. Maarten extremely dry; and Guyana extremely wet in the north to normal in the east. Aruba was very wet but Puerto Rico normal. Conditions in the Dominican Republic ranged from normal in the west to moderately dry in the east, while in Jamaica they ranged from moderately wet in the west to extremely wet in the east. Grand Cayman was slightly wet. Rainfall totals in Cuba varied from the normal to below normal west to the normal to above normal east. Belize totals ranged from normal in the south to moderately wet in the north.
January to March 2015
For the three month period in the eastern Caribbean and Guyana, there is a clear distinction between the normal to below normal north and the normal to above normal south. Trinidad, Tobago and St. Lucia were normal; Grenada and Barbados moderately wet; St. Vincent slightly wet; Dominica, St. Kitts and St. Croix moderately dry; Antigua and Anguilla severely dry; St. Maarten exceptionally dry; and Guyana moderately wet in the north to normal in the southeast. Aruba was normal. Puerto Rico ranged from very wet in the west to slightly wet in the east, but the Dominican Republic was from normal in the west to extremely wet in the east. Belize, Cuba and Grand Cayman were normal, and so too was Jamaica apart from the extreme south that was slightly wet.
October 2014 to March 2015
Mixed conditions characterized the rainfall totals for the six month period in the eastern Caribbean and Guyana. Trinidad, St. Vincent, St. Kitts, St. Croix and St. Maarten were normal; Tobago very wet; Grenada slightly wet; Barbados and Anguilla moderately wet; St. Lucia moderately dry; Dominica extremely dry; and Guyana very wet in the north to normal in the south. Aruba and the Dominican Republic were normal, but Puerto Rico was slightly wet. Conditions in Jamaica ranged from slightly wet in the west to moderately dry in the east. Grand Cayman was slightly dry, but apart from the central parts of Cuba that had similar conditions Cuba was normal. Conditions in Belize ranged from normal for the southern half of the country to moderately wet in the north.
April 2014 to March 2015
The islands of the eastern Caribbean were dominated by normal to below normal rainfall for the twelve month period. Trinidad was moderate to extremely dry; Tobago, Grenada, Barbados, St. Kitts, Anguilla, St. Maarten and St. Croix normal; St. Vincent, St. Lucia and Antigua moderately dry; and Dominica exceptionally dry. Rainfall in Guyana ranged from extremely wet in the north to moderately dry in the south. Aruba was slightly dry, while Puerto Rico was slight to moderately wet. Conditions in the Dominican Republic ranged from moderately dry in the south to normal in the north, but for Jamaica they were from slightly wet in the west to moderately dry in the east. Grand Cayman was moderately dry. Normal to severely dry conditions existed over Cuba, while over Belize these were from moderately dry in the south to slightly wet in the north.
The information contained herein is provided with the understanding that The Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.
The maps produced used SPI values calculated from monthly rainfall totals from land stations and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Only land station data is used for the eastern Caribbean, described here as from Georgetown, Guyana in the south to Anguilla in the north. The Greater (and Western) Antilles is less represented by land stations. However efforts are being made to include more land stations from that part of the region. Note that the severity implied by the index is relative to what is normal for that period of consideration. Normal in the drier season reflects less rainfall than in the wetter season.